Manipur on the edge : Urgent need for lasting peace amid escalating conflict

Dipak Kurmi
A fragile peace in Manipur, marred by long-standing tensions and sporadic violence, was once again shattered earlier this month by drone and rocket attacks. These strikes, allegedly carried out by Kuki-Zo outfits against the Meitei community, have reignited fears of an intensifying civil strife. In just 10 days, the fresh wave of violence claimed 11 lives, sparking widespread protests across the State. The mounting tensions have led to demands from local students and protesters for the resignation of key State figures, including Director General of Police (DGP) Rajiv Singh and Security Adviser Kuldiep Singh, whom they accuse of mismanaging the ongoing crisis.
Manipur has now been in turmoil for over a year and a half, with little hope of resolution in sight. The prolonged conflict and repeated failures of the State Government to address the root causes have raised serious questions about the ability of political leaders to restore normalcy. Furthermore, the Central Government's apparent inaction has contributed to the widespread perception that there is a lack of political will to resolve the deep-rooted issues that continue to fuel the violence.
Historical Fault Lines and the Genesis of the Conflict : Manipur’s social and political landscape has always been complex, shaped by its cultural diversity, religious affiliations, and demographic asymme-tries. These factors, com- bined with economic disparities, have fostered a climate of competition between different communities over access to land and natural resources. While ethnic tensions have long simmered beneath the surface, the present conflict can be traced to a controversial ruling by the Manipur High Court in March 2023. This ruling, which asked the State Government to forward the report for the inclusion of the Meitei community in the list of Scheduled Tribes (STs) to the Centre, became the spark that ignited the current crisis.
The Meiteis, who form the majority of the population and are relatively prosperous, viewed the Court's recommendation as an opportunity to secure greater economic and political privileges. However, the Kukis, a minority group that predominantly inhabits the hill areas of Manipur, saw the ruling as an existential threat. Allowing the Meiteis to acquire land in the hill districts, where Kukis have traditionally resided, exacerbated fears of marginalization among the Kukis. This led to an immediate backlash, resulting in escalating tensions between the two communities.
 In early May 2023, the simmering tensions erupted into full-blown violence. Clashes between the Meiteis and Kukis, who had previously coexisted relatively peacefully, spiraled out of control. Within a matter of days, over 100 people were killed, and around 60,000 were displaced as entire villages were razed to the ground. The violence has continued unabated since then, with the death toll rising to around 240 as of today.
Fragmentation of the State and the Threat of Balkanisation : The conflict has left Manipur deeply divided along ethnic lines. The Meiteis control the Imphal valley, while the Kukis have entrenched themselves in the hill districts of Churachandpur, Kangpokpi and Tengnou-pal. This division has prompted the Kukis to demand a separate hill State, a proposal that has gained momentum as the conflict drags on. Complicating matters further, the Nagas, another major ethnic group in Manipur, have stayed out of the current conflict but continue to harbor aspirations for a separate adminis- trative entity encompassing areas they dominate. This confluence of competing territorial claims poses a serious threat to the territorial integrity of Manipur, raising the specter of its potential Balkanisation.
The State has now become a war zone, with both the Meiteis and Kukis heavily fortifying their respective territories. Security forces have established buffer zones between the two groups in a bid to prevent further clashes, but the situation remains extremely volatile. Both communities maintain well-trained militias, largely composed of former militant outfits, armed with sophisticated weaponry. These militias have been responsible for numerous acts of violence, including brutal killings and extortion, further entrenching the conflict.
The ease with which these groups can procure arms has been a major factor in the escalation of violence. A flourishing arms smuggling network runs from China through Myanmar, supplying modern weaponry to militant groups in Manipur. Additionally, rebel groups fighting against the military junta in Myanmar have become a lucrative source of weapons. The problem has been exacerbated by the looting of around 6,000 firearms from State police armouries, of which only a small fraction have been recovered.
A Failure of Governance and Leadership : The protracted conflict in Manipur highlights the complete breakdown of governance in the State. Both the State and Central Governments have resorted to crisis management rather than addressing the underlying causes of the conflict. The absence of a coherent political initiative to restore peace has allowed the situation to spiral out of control, leaving Manipur in a state of near-anarchy.
The Union Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA) has effectively taken control of the State’s administration through the Unified Headquarters, which oversees security operations. However, the situation on the ground remains dire, with even the Chief Minister and his Cabinet reportedly unable to move freely in the State capital, Imphal.
Further complicating the issue is the lack of unity among State authorities. While the DGP has openly admitted that the local police are unable to manage the situation and has called for Central forces to take charge, others within the State Government have expressed conflicting views. Rajkumar Imo Singh, an MLA and the Chief Minister's son-in-law, has gone so far as to demand the removal of Central forces, calling them ‘ineffective.’ This disunity extends to the relationship between the Assam Rifles and the State police, with the two agencies frequently blaming each other for the worsening security situation.
The inability of the State Government to present a united front and its failure to maintain law and order have only deepened the crisis. The conflict is no longer a mere ethnic dispute; it has now evolved into a serious National security issue, with grave implications for the stability of the entire region.
A Call for President’s Rule and a Comprehensive Action Plan : The current situation in Manipur demands urgent and decisive action. The State Government has lost the confidence of the people, and its inability to restore order necessitates the imposition of President’s Rule. A new administrative structure, with a clear and Centralized chain of command, is essential for restoring normalcy. The Unified Headquarters, which currently manages security operations, must be reconstituted to ensure greater coordination between security agencies and provide the Army with a free hand to disarm militant groups.
There is an urgent need for better border management to prevent the flow of arms and insurgents from Myanmar, where the political situation remains unstable.
Above all, a sincere effort must be made to rebuild trust between the Meiteis and Kukis. Civil society organizations should play a key role in fostering dialogue between the two communities. Political leaders must abandon the status-quo mindset that has allowed the conflict to fester and explore new solutions to the deeply-rooted issues. Failure to act decisively risks further deterioration of the situation, which could have catastrophic consequences for the people of Manipur and the region as a whole.
A Time for National Action: Manipur is at a critical juncture. The violence and division that have plagued the State for over a year and a half threaten to spiral into a prolonged and intractable conflict if immediate steps are not taken. The root causes of the crisis—poor governance, authoritarianism, a polarized security apparatus, and the resurgence of militant groups—must be addressed with a comprehensive and coordinated action plan.
The Central Government, in particular, must take a proactive role in resolving the conflict. The perception that it is indifferent to the plight of the people of Manipur must be dispelled through concrete actions that demonstrate its commitment to peace and reconciliation.
The situation in Manipur calls for a National response. The violence and strife tearing the State apart are not just a local issue but a threat to the security and stability of the entire country. It is time for all stakeholders—political leaders, civil society, and security forces—to come together and find a lasting solution to the conflict. Only then can the people of Manipur hope for a future free from violence and division.