Manipur poll result likely to impact NE

 IMPHAL, Mar 14
After the outcome of the Assembly elections in the BJP-ruled Manipur and ahead of the crucial polls in the three North Eastern States of Meghalaya, Nagaland and Tripura, political realignments in the region are imminent. The BJP's ally in Meghalaya, the National People's Party (NPP), which has been the partner of the saffron party since 2017 in Manipur, has now announced that it will function as an Opposition party in the State after becoming the second-largest party securing seven seats (against four seats five years ago).
Another influential political party in Manipur and Nagaland-the Naga People's Front (NPF), which after contesting against the BJP on 10 seats secured five seats this time against four in 2017, is yet to officially announce its final stand on supporting the BJP, though it has indicated it will back the saffron party in Manipur. The BJP with two MLAs is a partner of the NPP-led Meghalaya Democratic Alliance Government and with 12 MLAs is an ally of Nagaland's United Democratic Alliance (UDA) Government, in which the NPF with 25 MLAs is a major ally.
Meghalaya Chief Minister and NPP supremo Conrad K Sangma has already indicated that they would play the role of an Opposition party in Manipur and continue to serve the people of the State with the utmost sincerity and hard work. In the just-concluded Manipur Assembly elections, the BJP, NPP and NPF had contested separately and fielded 60, 38 and 10 candidates, respectively, against each other. With its assertion to make a 'Congress Mukt (free) NE region', the BJP has been trying to consolidate its position in all the North Eastern States. The Congress, which once dominated seven of the eight North Eastern States, has no MLAs in Meghalaya, Tripura and Nagaland, where the Assembly elections are due in less than a year.
Among the eight States in the North East, the Congress with 27 MLAs has a significant presence only in the 60-member Assam Assembly. The All India Congress Committee (AICC) recently suspended the remaining five party MLAs in Meghalaya who earlier announced to join the BJP-backed MDA Government, keeping the Central and State leaders in the dark. Before the latest development, 12 Congress MLAs led by former Meghalaya Chief Minister Mukul Sangma joined the Trinamool Congress on November 24 last year, reducing the party's strength to five in the 60-member Assembly.
After governing Manipur for three consecutive terms (2002-2017), the Opposition Congress, which had become the single-largest party in the 2017 Assembly polls by securing 28 seats, won only five seats and managed only 16.83 per cent of the votes this time, against 35.5 per cent votes in the 2017 polls. In contrast, the ruling BJP managed 32 seats and 37.83 per cent of the votes this time, against 21 seats and 36.3 per cent of the votes in 2017.
Political commentators and analysts observed that though the regional parties, which are now ruling Meghalaya, Mizoram, Nagaland and Sikkim, are consolidating their positions at the cost of the Congress, the grand old party's political base is shrinking due to a weak organizational structure and a leadership crisis both in these States and at the Centre. Journalist and writer Sekhar Datta said that due to the ideology and broad platform of the Congress the party once governed the region but over the years when region-centric issues dominated politics, the regional parties emerged strongly.
The BJP, due to its 'double engine advantage', captured a part of the political space, pushing the Congress out of the main political spectrum. "The Central Congress leaders' indifferent attitude towards the North East and visionless politics made the party a nonentity in the political platform of the region. Both the Central and State Congress leaders are visible just before the elections even as hundreds of serious issues have plagued the region," Datta said.
Another political observer, Sushanta Talukdar, said: "With the strained relations between the BJP and the regional parties, there are bound to be serious electoral ramifications in the near future, especially during the Assembly elections in Meghalaya and Nagaland early next year."
 The BJP wrested power in Assam (in 2016 and 2021), Manipur (in 2017 and 2022) and Tripura (in 2018) with the support of the local and regional parties. The saffron party's current relations with several allies in the North Eastern States are very unpleasant. Besides the NPP, a National party, the NPF, Nationalist Democratic Progressive Party (NDPP) led by Nagaland Chief Minister Neiphiu Rio, ruling Mizo National Front in Mizoram, BJP's ally in Tripura, the Indigenous People's Front of Tripura and a few other regional and State parties are the constituents of the BJP-led anti-Congress alliance of regional parties-the North East Democratic Alliance (NEDA), the North-East unit of the National Democratic Alliance at the Centre.
Assam Chief Minister and BJP leader Himanta Biswa Sarma is the convener of the NEDA. Meanwhile, for the first time in Manipur, tribal community based politics emerged in the recent elections. In less than two months of its birth, the Kuki People's Alliance (KPA), a tribe-based political party in Manipur, has managed to make its way into the Assembly securing two seats-Saikul and Singnat in Kangpokpi and Churachandpur districts respectively. The Kukis and the Nagas are the dominant tribal populations in 19 of the 60 constituencies in the mountainous areas of Manipur bordering Nagaland. The victory of the KPA in the two seats it contested witnessed an ethnic division in the State for the first time. The KPA's victory showed that if the Naga People's Front (NPF) wins in the Naga-majority Constituencies, a Kuki party is successful in the Kuki-majority areas. KPA vice-president Dr Chinkholal Thangsing agreed that community-based politics have emerged in Manipur.
IANS