Dancing in tune in this pandemic: A belated analysis of Manipur political crisis

Khaitinthang Haokip
Manipur, too, did not disappoint to entertain in times of political crisis. Recently, it managed to thwart the typical distinctive category of a stereotypical Northeast politics and manage to made it enthralling. For in a representative democracy, it does made up for in intensity what it couldn’t make up for in a number game. The recently lost and won-back crisis by the BJP-led North East Democratic Alliance (NEDA) govt in Manipur was an eye-catching story for many political observers. At the time of writing this piece, the situation can be said to have returned to normal with the intervention of the Centre leadership (of BJP) and Conrad Sangma (chief of NPP).
Politics in Manipur, currently, it seems, has become a lousy-but-still engrossing equivalent of our Federal Government style of functioning, which can be seen from its emulation of the alleged ‘headline management’ and a ‘one-man’ political show of the one, although it didn’t have the political capital the centre enjoys. All these could happen in Manipur because the Chief Minister is a trusted and hand-pick leader by the BJP high command. And that the CM would readily go beyond certain lines to strengthen the BJP’s core principles is only helping him even more. Note that, the nearly three-and-a-half years old BJP led coalition government in Manipur was formed with numerous parties which include the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC). For many this was baffling because a full blown tussle between BJP and Mamata Banerjee’s AITC have been going on for sometime now in West Bengal, anticipating next year’s Bengal assembly election. Such an unusual steps, in a way explain the politics of our Northeast; that even such ideologically different and mutually detested parties could come together to form a stable government. We do appear different to mainland India, don’t we?
But Biren is no Modi. The rise of Modi to such powerful political icon have been phenomenal. In fact, the last time any powerful leader of India who had commanded such strong support base was Indira Gandhi. Modi to his massive followers, is indestructible and supposed to be immune from criticism, even constructive ones. Now, his image being that of a common man who understand the woes of all Indian is not accidental. It is a highly manage persona that is cared much else equally as the body itself. In all fairness, he’d earned most of it. Unlike Modi, Biren is not a mass leader.
Also, unlike Modi, Biren has competition within his cabinet, which was what allegedly started the crisis. Two important names: one, Y Joykumar Singh, NPP (who is known to have an old association with Ibobi during his stint as DG police of Manipur between 2007-2012, and recently divested from his position as Finance Minister for an overdraft of Rs 250 crore) and, two, Th Bishwajit Singh, BJP (who was also divested of his Power and Public Work portfolio) - both last year - have openly challenge the CM style of ‘one-man’ governance. The crisis was fully blown just days before Rajya Sabha election in Manipur; with four NPP legislators, one AITC legislator, and an independent legislator withdrawing their support to the government. Three BJP leaders also then quit BJP, levelling several allegations against the Chief Minister. What would ensued next is a brief period of uncertainty for the BJP and a renewal of lost ambition for the Congress. In the end of all that predicament, a Manipuri version of the now infamous “Aaya Ram, Gaya Ram” phrase almost transpired. Ironically, that moment in history was the reason why the Tenth Schedule to the Indian Constitution (anti-defection law) was enacted in 1985, the same law which was recently used by the Speaker of Manipur legislative assembly to the advantages of the BJP.
 It is an accepted analyse by many mainland political observers that in states where BJP form government, Modi-Shah has not necessarily chosen strong leaders but someone who can be dictated from Raisina Hills.
The political turmoil in Manipur had begun since last year but it’d matured into confidence just days before the election to the lone Rajya Sabha seat in manipur. The Congress party alleged that, L. Sanajaoba, the titular King of Manipur won (in the BJP ticket) due to the proactive move of the otherwise “unbecoming” characteristic of a speaker in the Manipur Legislative assembly - Y. Khemchand Singh. Against whom the Manipur Congress had also sought the action of the Secretary of the Manipur legislative assembly to ousted him.
Leading to the Rajya Sabha election in June 19, 2020, congress had met governor Najma Heptullah appraising her of their confidence in forming a Congress-led Secular Progressive Front (SPF) govt. Of course, the same governor, who then had called the BJP to formed the government in 2017 - in which the BJP had only 21 seats compare to the 28 seats of the congress in a 60 seat House - was unlikely to move in a hurry. Like in many other circumstances, this delayed tactic was to give the BJP time to sort out differences and solution with it’s coalition partners. After days of negotiations led by Biswa Sarma (convenor of NEDA, also the Health minister, Assam) and Sangma (chief of NPP, an ally of BJP), the disgruntled legislators were flown to Delhi where they first met Amit Shah, the Home Minister of India. The patch-up effort by Amit Shah is said to be working as evidently, BJP leader Ram Madhav and other leaders recently have promised ‘stable’ government in Manipur till the current term end.
The most interesting development in that period was the visit of Manipur by two leaders from the Congress, AJay Maken and Gaurav Gogoi. Later on, another two leaders, Himanta Biswa Sarma and Conrad Sangma would also visit Manipur. Their similarities ends there. Sent on behalf of AICC to be an observers for a possible formation of a congress-led SPF govt, Ajay Maken (Congress spokeperson and former Delhi Congress chief) and Gaurav Gogoi (party General Secretary in-charge of North East) were put under paid quarantine center at an Imphal Hotel even before meeting party cadres as they had already booked room at the said hotel before their arrival, as per protocols. Later on, Biswa Sarma and Sangma would flew in and out on the same day there by avoiding govt. protocol of compulsory quarantine.
Almost clipped of its wing, but Congress leaders still mulled on the possibilities of an alternate government led by them. That was no unfeasible dream but unlikely to be achieved just as they once could do easily when Congress was in power in the centre. If we must further our analyse on the importance of centre government support for stable govt. in Northeast, look no further than Meghalaya. There, BJP (ally with NPP with only two legislators) has huge say in the government. Obviously, Manipur, like other Northeastern states, is resigned to depend on the centre for the bragging rights of Central funds. For true development to happen, some observers expects a change in such dependency toward the centre government.
Still, Congress had run a back channel with the NPP, just in case. But that line broke on the second time Sarma and Sangma visited Manipur. They travelled to Delhi with the four NPP leaders with them. From then on, the process of piecing back together the Biren govt. was swift with the promises of Ministerial berth each one for the four NPP leaders, by Amit Shah. Such promises appeared counterproductive as there begins murmur of dissatisfaction back in Manipur by their own MLAs for overlooking them. Also, the Nagal People’s Front (NPF), another ally of BJP, smelling an opportunity, demanded one more Ministerial berth in addition to what they already got. Currently NPF has two Ministerial post in the House where only twelve Ministerial post (including the Chief Minister’s) are possible in the 60 member House. Those will get sorted out in few days probably, so as of now the sumptuous crisis of Manipur seems to have descend back to it’s pre-existing status quo.
To look into perspective, this political saga isn’t unprecedented. States government in Northeast, like in the erstwhile state of Jammu and Kashmir, are stable as long as the centre wants them to be. Power of any state government can be cut off anytime when it doesn’t suit the centre’s policy. Which is why we saw stability more when party of the centre is also party to a state government. This is a simple political equation which the centre uses it to its whim and fancy and state leaders knows it too. That hasn’t bothered any leader whose ambition do not float beyond their respective states (or within Northeast). But, try to redraw that invisible line then that may led to the beginning of trouble. Meanwhile, the Congress should know better than most that with power in the centre, the BJP govt. in Manipur is nearly indestructible even if the state leadership is perceived to be weak. Once, they (Congress) were indestructible, too, with help from the centre. But kudos for the ambition, they will need more of them in the future. For now, Ibobi must feel colossal indignation in the hands of CBI in his involvement in the alleged “embezzlement” of crores of public funds.